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Scientific
Publications - Work Done by Microbiology Reader
Journal of Microbiological Methods, Volume 55, Issue 3 , December 2003, Pages 821-827
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(1) |
where
(N0)
denotes the lag time of the culture in the well with N0 cells.
The distribution of the individual lag times when N0=1 should
be reflected by the distribution of the detection times (see Fig. 1). However,
the number of cells per well obtained by serial dilution, N0,
is not necessarily exactly 1, and the variability of N0
contributes to the variability of the observed Tdet values.
When analysing the sources of the variability observed in the detection times,
we can safely assume that:
![]()
Fig. 1. For a subpopulation generated by a single cell (N0=1), the distribution of the detection times is the same as the distribution of the lag times of the individual cells, assuming the same growth rate.
We checked experimentally (see above) that:
Eq. (1) was used to analyse the dependence of the distribution of the Tdet
detection times on the four (more or less random) variables, N0,
Ndet,
and
(distribution of which depends on N0). The simulation studies
were carried out in Excel and analysed with @Risk (Risk analysis add-in to
Microsoft Excel™, Version 4.05, Professional Edition, Palisade, USA, 2000) with
the following input:
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(2) |
Fig. 2. Replicate viable count growth curves. The specific growth rate is a very well reproducible parameter, with a relative standard error of less than 3%.
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Ten thousand iterations with a Monte Carlo sampling method gave a standard deviation of 1.25 h for the Tdet detection times compared with the 1.12 h deviation for the individual lag times. In analysis of variance (ANOVA) terms, 1.122/1.252=80% of the variance of the detection times was explained by the variance of the lag times. Note that the lag time variability was relatively small in this simulation. Had the cells been stressed, their lag times would have been more scattered and the contribution of the variability of the individual lag times to the overall variability would have become even more dominant.
The simulated Tdet detection times kept the shape of the Gamma distribution. All the distributions available in @Risk (lognormal, etc.) were fitted to the Tdet values. The Gamma distribution gave a good fit, with a Chi-square value up to 93%. The variance of Tdet was somewhat higher than that of the individual lag times.
It was concluded that the Gamma distribution was suitable to fit the distribution of the Tdet values, and that most of the variability of the detection times could be attributed to the variability of the lag times.
The simulations also showed that the number of positive wells, necessary to get a good estimation for the distribution of the detection times, is around 100.
The Gamma distribution proved to be suitable to fit the measured Tdet detection times (Fig. 3). This is not in agreement with the findings of [Wu et al., 2000], who fitted a normal distribution to the distribution of the lag time of individual cells. However, they reported on 40 replicates at each dilution, which, in our experience, is not sufficient to establish which distribution is the best.
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Fig. 3. Observed and fitted distribution of the detection times (in hour) of a culture grown at 30 °C, pH 7 and 0.5% NaCl. Columns: histogram of observed detection times. Continuous curve: frequencies generated by the Gamma distribution fitted to the data by the maximum likelihood method.
Out of the 200 wells of the Bioscreen microtitre plate, the average number of positive wells was always between 125 and 175. Based on the Poisson assumption, this means that the mean of N0 was between 1 and 2 in all experiments.
We have established that the main source of variability in the detection times was due to the variability of the individual lag times. To test if the effect of growth conditions was consistent, two or three replicate experiments were carried out in each environmental condition. The total variance of the detection times in one set of environmental conditions was split into three independent variances
| VTotal=VR+VE+VH, |
where (i) VRis due to the Bioscreen reading inaccuracy; (ii) VE is due to the variability of the effect of environmental conditions; (iii) VH is due to the heterogeneity of the cells' physiological state when they are inoculated. This is what is measured by the distribution of the detection times (its main source is the variability the individual lag times).
The Bioscreen reading inaccuracy, VR, was evaluated with the high level inoculation experiment and was assumed to be the same in any environmental condition. The variability due to the environmental conditions, VE, was the variance of the means of the detection times in experiments carried out in the same conditions. The means were weighed with the standard deviation of the detection times. Finally, the variability due to the population heterogeneity, VH, was obtained by subtracting the former variances from the average total variance in a given set of environmental conditions. The result was expressed as an R2 percentage, the proportion of the total variability due to the heterogeneity of the cells' physiological state at inoculation (Table 1). In most cases, the replication of the environmental conditions was satisfactory (variability due to the population heterogeneity higher than 95%). This was, however, not true for experiments done at pH 5.0 or 5.5; results could not be repeated consistently at these low pH values.
Table 1. Sources of variability of the detection times at different environmental conditions
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The main source is generally the heterogeneity of the cells' initial physiological state, VH, except at low pH, when the variability of the effect of the environmental factors, VE, can be of equal weight.
As expected, the more inhibiting the growth condition was, the longer were the detection times and the more scattered their distribution. In Fig. 4, the standard deviation of the detection times is plotted against their average for each growth condition. It can be seen that, in the studied region of environmental factors, the relation between the standard deviation and the average of the detection times is more or less linear. It is notable, however, that the standard deviation remained almost at the same level with 4% NaCl as with 0.5% before increasing. This is in agreement with the results of [Patchett et al., 1992], who found that increases of potassium and betaine, among other osmoprotectants accumulating in the cell as the NaCl concentration increases, step up significantly from a concentration of NaCl of about 5%.
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Fig. 4. Standard deviation of the distributions of the detection times vs. their mean value, for all the studied growth conditions.
4. CONCLUSION
It would be desirable to control the variability of the bacterial lag time of pathogens to produce safe for example minimally processed food. However, technically, it is difficult to get sufficient and sufficiently accurate data on the lag times of individual cells. Turbidity detection times may provide a means to deal with the problem. As we have shown, the main source of the variability of detection times is close to the variability of individual lag times, if the initial number of cells is low. As a first approximation, a linear relation dev(T)~T can be established between the detection times and their standard deviation. However, if the growth is slow, then other sources ("noise") can match the proportion of the original variability and the linear relation may not be easily observed/reproduced.
ACKNOWELEDGEMENTS
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